<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><title>Arkansas Connections Academy - EdTribune AR - Arkansas Education Data</title><description>Education data coverage for Arkansas Connections Academy. Data-driven education journalism for Arkansas. Every number verified against state DOE data.</description><link>https://ar.edtribune.com/</link><language>en-us</language><copyright>EdTribune 2026</copyright><item><title>One in 40 Arkansas Students Now Attends School Online</title><link>https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion/</guid><description>Arkansas Connections Academy added 1,205 students this year. No other district in Arkansas came close. The next-largest gain belonged to Bentonville, at 369.</description><pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-connections-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Connections Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; added 1,205 students this year. No other district in Arkansas came close. The next-largest gain belonged to &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/bentonville&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Bentonville&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, at 369.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The state&apos;s two fully virtual public schools, Connections Academy and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-virtual-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Virtual Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, together enrolled 11,559 students in 2025-26, up from 4,071 in 2019-20. That 184% increase happened while total public enrollment fell by 14,011. Strip out the virtual sector, and the non-virtual system lost 21,499 students, a 4.5% decline that the headline statewide number understates by a third.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;Arkansas virtual enrollment trend, 2008-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Two schools, 2.5% of the state&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Virtual schooling in Arkansas is functionally a two-provider market. Arkansas Virtual Academy, operated by Stride Inc. (formerly K12 Inc.), has been enrolling students since 2008, when it served 499 students, about 0.1% of the state. Connections Academy, a Pearson subsidiary, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.connectionsacademy.com/arkansas-virtual-school/overview/&quot;&gt;opened in 2017&lt;/a&gt; with 343 students and has grown every year since except 2023.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together, the two schools&apos; share of state enrollment rose from 0.1% to 2.5% over 18 years, with most of that growth compressed into the last six. In 2020, they held 0.85% of statewide enrollment. By 2026, that share nearly tripled.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion-share.png&quot; alt=&quot;Virtual share of state enrollment, 2008-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The growth came in two waves. The first was the pandemic: virtual enrollment surged by 2,637 students in 2020-21, a 64.8% single-year jump. But unlike most states, Arkansas virtual schools did not give that enrollment back. After a brief dip of 281 students in 2022-23, the second wave began: +777 in 2023-24, +2,103 in 2024-25, +1,715 in 2025-26.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year virtual enrollment changes&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The one-student crossover&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For nine years, Arkansas Virtual Academy was the larger of the two. In 2026, Connections Academy pulled ahead by a single student: 5,780 to 5,779. From its 2017 launch at 343 students, Connections grew at an annualized rate of 37% over nine years, outpacing Virtual Academy&apos;s 12%. Connections Academy&apos;s &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.connectionsacademy.com/arkansas-virtual-school/enrollment/&quot;&gt;enrollment cap stands at 7,000&lt;/a&gt;, leaving roughly 1,220 seats of headroom.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion-schools.png&quot; alt=&quot;Individual virtual school enrollment, 2017-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Where the growth came from&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Only 65 of Arkansas&apos;s 258 matched districts gained students between 2024-25 and 2025-26. The two virtual schools accounted for 1,715 of the 4,035 total students gained across all growing districts, or 42.5%. The remaining 192 districts that lost students included every one of the state&apos;s 12 largest traditional districts except Bentonville and Fayetteville.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This matters for how to read statewide trends. Arkansas&apos;s total enrollment fell by 8,916 this year to 465,421, the lowest since 2006-07. But virtual schools absorbed 1,715 new students on net. The non-virtual system&apos;s loss was 10,631, nearly 20% larger than the headline figure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A choice landscape in flux&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The timing of the second growth wave, beginning in 2023-24, coincides with a broader expansion of school choice in Arkansas. The &lt;a href=&quot;https://learns.ade.arkansas.gov/&quot;&gt;LEARNS Act&lt;/a&gt;, signed in 2023, created the Education Freedom Account program, which provides roughly 90% of per-student state funding for families who choose private schools or homeschooling. The program grew from &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.edchoice.org/school-choice/programs/arkansas-childrens-educational-freedom-account-program/&quot;&gt;5,548 participants in its first year to 46,578 in 2025-26&lt;/a&gt;, the first year of universal eligibility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;EFA recipients are not attending virtual public schools. The two programs pull from different parts of the education market. But they share a context: Arkansas families have more exit options from their assigned district than at any point in the state&apos;s history.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/rogers&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Rogers&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; School District Superintendent Jeff Perry told &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2026-03-03/as-arkansas-schools-lose-students-districts-brace-for-cuts&quot;&gt;KUAF&lt;/a&gt; that demographic forces compound the choice dynamics:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The median price of a house now is exponentially more than it was four years ago.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Perry noted that Rogers, with roughly 52% Hispanic students, has also seen fewer new arrivals replacing departing families. Bentonville Superintendent Debbie Jones warned in the same report that the EFA program &quot;does have a financial impact on school districts,&quot; with each departing student representing approximately $8,000 in state funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A whiter student body&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Virtual schools in Arkansas skew white. In 2025-26, 67.0% of virtual students are white, compared to 56.5% statewide. Black students make up 15.2% of virtual enrollment versus 19.1% statewide. Hispanic students are most underrepresented: 8.4% versus 15.4% statewide, roughly half the rate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2026-02-02-ar-virtual-explosion-demographics.png&quot; alt=&quot;Racial composition: virtual schools vs. all public schools&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gap is not unusual for virtual schools nationally. Language barriers and the intensive parental involvement that virtual schooling requires both correlate with income and race. But in a state where the traditional system is becoming more diverse while the fastest-growing sector skews whiter, the divergence bears watching.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What enrollment data cannot show&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The data cannot distinguish how many virtual enrollees would have attended a traditional public school otherwise, and how many were previously homeschooled, in private school, or new to the state. Arkansas Education Association president April Reisma cautioned &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2026-01-08/arkansas-public-school-enrollment-drops-amid-voucher-rollout&quot;&gt;KUAF&lt;/a&gt; that even modest enrollment shifts compound:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Even though it does seem like it&apos;s a small percentage, it really does hit some of our districts...giving them more damage than other districts.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The 3% threshold&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If the two virtual schools maintain their current growth rate, they will cross 3% of state enrollment by 2027-28, enrolling roughly 14,000 students. Connections Academy&apos;s 7,000-student cap is the most immediate constraint. Whether the state raises that cap, or a third virtual provider enters the market, will shape the trajectory. Arkansas Virtual Academy operates under Stride Inc., a publicly traded company that runs similar schools in more than 30 states and has no announced enrollment ceiling in Arkansas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the 192 districts that lost students this year, the question is not whether virtual schools are growing. The question is how much of that growth comes from families who would not have enrolled locally regardless, and how much represents a permanent exit channel.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>One in 17 Arkansas Students Now Attends a Charter-Like School</title><link>https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled/</guid><description>Arkansas does not track charter schools with a formal flag in its enrollment data. Identify them by name, though, and the pattern is unmistakable: 17 entities matching charter, academy, and virtual ke...</description><pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;Arkansas does not track charter schools with a formal flag in its enrollment data. Identify them by name, though, and the pattern is unmistakable: 17 entities matching charter, academy, and virtual keywords enrolled 27,451 students in 2025-26, up from 8,416 across 14 entities in 2014-15. Their share of statewide enrollment has more than tripled, from 1.8% to 5.9%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That growth happened while the state&apos;s overall enrollment fell by 10,662 students. Traditional districts lost 29,697. The arithmetic is exact: traditional districts lost 19,035 more students than the statewide total declined. The charter-like sector gained 19,035. Whether those are the same students, or whether both trends have independent causes, the data cannot say.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A methodological caveat up front&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Arkansas Department of Education does not publish a charter school flag in its enrollment-by-race dataset. The analysis here uses a name-pattern proxy, matching entities whose names include terms like &quot;charter,&quot; &quot;academy,&quot; &quot;virtual,&quot; &quot;eStem,&quot; or &quot;Haas Hall.&quot; This captures the universe of open-enrollment charters and virtual schools but is inherently approximate. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/imboden-charter&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Imboden Charter School District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, for instance, is a traditional district that happens to carry &quot;charter&quot; in its name (53 students). Its inclusion does not materially change the sector totals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;All enrollment numbers come from the ADE Data Center. The sector labels are the analysis&apos;s own classification, not the state&apos;s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Two sectors hiding inside one label&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 5.9% headline number conceals a structural split. Of the 27,451 students in charter-like entities, 11,559 attend just two virtual schools: &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-connections-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Connections Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (5,780) and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-virtual-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Virtual Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (5,779). Together they account for 42.1% of the sector&apos;s enrollment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled-composition.png&quot; alt=&quot;Two Sectors Within One Label&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The brick-and-mortar side, 15 entities enrolling 15,892 students, grew at a steadier pace. Virtual enrollment is the volatile component. Arkansas Virtual Academy sat at a flat 499-500 students from 2008 through 2013, suggesting a regulatory cap. By 2015, it had jumped to 1,647. Connections Academy launched in 2016-17 with 343 students; eight years later it enrolls 5,780.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the virtual side. Between 2018-19 and 2020-21, virtual enrollment in the two schools surged from 3,597 to 6,708, an 86.5% increase. Brick-and-mortar charters grew 16% over the same period. Virtual enrollment dipped slightly in 2022 and 2023 as the pandemic receded, then resumed climbing: 7,741 in 2023-24, 9,844 in 2024-25, and 11,559 in 2025-26.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The growth trajectory is not smooth&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The sector as a whole actually shrank in 2021-22 and 2022-23, losing 411 and 391 students respectively. That contraction reflected real churn: seven entities present in 2018-19 had disappeared from the data by 2025-26, including Little Rock Preparatory Academy (361 students in 2019), Haas Hall Bentonville (419), and Pine Bluff Lighthouse Academy (273).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Charter-Like Sector: Year-Over-Year Change&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The dip proved temporary. The sector added 1,077 students in 2023-24, then 2,528, then 3,007 in 2025-26, the largest annual gain since 2019. The acceleration coincides with the &lt;a href=&quot;https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/learns-act-18586/&quot;&gt;LEARNS Act&lt;/a&gt;, signed by Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders in March 2023, which removed the cap on charter school authorizations and created the Education Freedom Account voucher program.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Who attends charter-like schools&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The charter-like sector serves a different demographic mix than traditional districts. Black students make up 23.7% of charter-like enrollment but 18.8% of traditional enrollment. Asian students are 5.2% versus 1.8%. White students are 47.7% of the charter-like sector, compared with 57.1% of traditional districts. Hispanic enrollment is roughly equal in both sectors (15.9% vs. 15.4%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/lisa-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;LISA Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, the largest brick-and-mortar charter network at 4,320 students, is STEM-focused and has &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.lisaacademy.org/schools&quot;&gt;expanded to 10 campuses&lt;/a&gt; across the state, including a hybrid model launched in 2021. It has grown from 163 students in 2004-05 to become the sector&apos;s third-largest entity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled-entities.png&quot; alt=&quot;17 Charter-Like Entities, 2025-26&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/estem-public-charter&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;eStem Public Charter School&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; tells the opposite story. After peaking at 3,202 students in 2019-20 (when three separately reported campuses had consolidated under one LEA code), it has declined to 2,018, a 37.0% drop in six years. The decline accelerated after 2022, losing 150 to 380 students annually.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The LEARNS Act and the new competitive landscape&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The LEARNS Act reshaped Arkansas school choice in three ways relevant to charter enrollment. First, it &lt;a href=&quot;https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/learns-act-18586/&quot;&gt;removed the numerical cap&lt;/a&gt; on open-enrollment charter authorizations. Second, it directed poorly performing districts to partner with charter operators. Third, it created Education Freedom Accounts, which by 2025-26 had &lt;a href=&quot;https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2026/01/02/enrollment-falls-across-the-board-in-ark-public-schools-as-vouchers-take-their-toll&quot;&gt;approved nearly 47,000 participants&lt;/a&gt;, at a projected cost of &lt;a href=&quot;https://katv.com/news/local/arkansas-public-schools-face-steepest-enrollment-drop-in-20-years-amid-voucher-rollout-april-reisma-arkansas-education-association-for-ar-kids-education-freedom-accounts-school-choice-efa-program-learns-act-sarah-huckabee-sanders-lrsd-springdale&quot;&gt;$327 million&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The EFA program is distinct from charter enrollment. EFA funds flow to private schools and homeschool families, not to public charter schools. But the two programs share a policy ecosystem. The cap removal encourages new charter openings; the voucher program signals a broader shift toward family choice that may accelerate transfers from traditional districts to all non-traditional options.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;95 percent of them already were attending private schools, so this was just an additional expense for the Arkansas taxpayer.&quot;
— April Reisma, president of the Arkansas Education Association, &lt;a href=&quot;https://katv.com/news/local/arkansas-public-schools-face-steepest-enrollment-drop-in-20-years-amid-voucher-rollout-april-reisma-arkansas-education-association-for-ar-kids-education-freedom-accounts-school-choice-efa-program-learns-act-sarah-huckabee-sanders-lrsd-springdale&quot;&gt;via KATV, Jan. 2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That critique applies to the EFA voucher program specifically, not to charter growth. But it underscores the difficulty of disentangling true transfers from enrollment that was never in public schools to begin with.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What traditional districts are losing&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 29,697-student decline in traditional districts since 2014-15 is not spread evenly. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/pulaski&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pulaski County Special School District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 5,081 students (30.6%), &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/little-rock&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Little Rock School District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 4,399 (18.8%), and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/pine-bluff&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pine Bluff&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 1,582 (37.3%). Delta and southeastern districts bore disproportionate losses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled-divergence.png&quot; alt=&quot;Diverging Paths Since 2015&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The divergence chart indexed to 2014-15 tells the story: traditional enrollment has drifted steadily downward to 93.6% of its baseline while charter-like enrollment has risen to 326.2%. But the absolute numbers matter. The traditional sector still enrolls 437,970 students, 94.1% of the state total. The charter-like sector, for all its growth, remains small.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Northwest Arkansas is the one region where traditional districts are growing. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/bentonville&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Bentonville&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; added 4,447 students since 2014-15 (+28.7%), driven by population growth in the Walmart headquarters corridor. Fayetteville, Pea Ridge, and Farmington also gained. The charter-like entities with Northwest Arkansas roots, Haas Hall Academy and Arkansas Arts Academy, have also grown, but the traditional districts in that region are gaining students on net.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What comes next&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-29-ar-charter-sector-tripled-share.png&quot; alt=&quot;Charter-Like Share of AR Enrollment&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At 5.9%, Arkansas&apos;s charter-like sector is still smaller than the national average for states with mature charter laws. The LEARNS Act&apos;s removal of the charter cap creates room for further growth, and as many as &lt;a href=&quot;https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/learns-act-18586/&quot;&gt;18 new charter applications&lt;/a&gt; were in the pipeline for 2024-25. If even half succeed and reach scale, the sector could approach 8% within a few years. Whether virtual schools, which have added 7,962 students since 2019, continue to drive that growth or brick-and-mortar operators catch up will determine what &quot;charter growth&quot; actually means: more physical schools in communities, or more students learning from home.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>Arkansas Lost More Students This Year Than COVID Took</title><link>https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://ar.edtribune.com/ar/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid/</guid><description>The COVID-19 pandemic was supposed to be the shock. In 2020-21, Arkansas public schools lost 6,428 students in a single year, the kind of enrollment hit that prompts emergency budget meetings and anxi...</description><pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;The COVID-19 pandemic was supposed to be the shock. In 2020-21, Arkansas public schools lost 6,428 students in a single year, the kind of enrollment hit that prompts emergency budget meetings and anxious headlines. It took three years to claw back roughly half of what was lost.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then 2025-26 erased all of it, and then some.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Arkansas public schools enrolled 465,421 students this year, down 8,916 from the prior year. That is a 1.9% decline in a single year, the largest on record in 21 years of state data, and 39% larger than the COVID drop. The state now sits 14,011 students below its pre-pandemic peak of 479,432 in 2019-20 and at its lowest enrollment since 2005-06.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;21 years of Arkansas enrollment showing the 2026 cliff&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A record nobody wanted&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The scale of this year&apos;s loss is visible in the year-over-year record. Before 2020-21, the largest single-year decline in the dataset was just 940 students in 2018-19. The COVID year shattered that pattern with a loss of 6,428. But even COVID left the state above 473,000. The 2025-26 figure of 465,421 is a level Arkansas has not seen since the 2005-06 school year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The post-COVID recovery, such as it was, peaked in 2022-23 at 476,579 students, recovering 3,575 of the 6,428 lost, or about 55.6%. Then the trajectory reversed. The state shed 1,372 students in 2023-24, another 870 in 2024-25, and then 8,916 this year. The three-year combined loss of 11,158 amounts to 2.3% of the 2023 enrollment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year enrollment change bars showing the 2026 record decline&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Three out of four districts shrank&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The decline was not concentrated in a handful of struggling urban cores. Of 258 districts with data in both years, 192 lost students, 74.4% of the total. Only 65 grew, and one was flat.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/little-rock&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Little Rock&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; led all districts with a loss of 601 students (-3.1%), followed by &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/springdale&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Springdale&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; at 559 (-2.6%) and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/fort-smith&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Fort Smith&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; at 478 (-3.5%). &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/conway&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Conway&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 369 (-3.7%) and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/pulaski&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pulaski County Special&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 362 (-3.0%). These five districts alone account for 2,369 students, about 27% of the net statewide loss.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the breadth matters more than the concentration. Mid-size districts like &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/russellville&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Russellville&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-183, or -3.4%), &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/siloam-springs&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Siloam Springs&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-265, or -5.8%), and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/lake-hamilton&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Lake Hamilton&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-207, or -5.4%) posted losses well above the statewide average. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/estem-public-charter&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;eStem Public Charter School&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, a well-regarded B-rated charter, lost 340 students, a staggering 14.4% of its enrollment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid-losers.png&quot; alt=&quot;Top 15 district enrollment losses in 2025-26&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The single notable exception: &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/bentonville&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Bentonville&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; gained 369 students (+1.9%), driven by the ongoing population boom in Northwest Arkansas anchored by the Walmart, Tyson Foods, and J.B. Hunt corporate campuses. Bentonville is now the state&apos;s second-largest district at 19,944 students, closing the gap with Springdale&apos;s 21,097.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The voucher question&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The most obvious variable that changed between 2024-25 and 2025-26 is the full expansion of the Education Freedom Accounts program created by the &lt;a href=&quot;https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2023/08/19/how-does-the-arkansas-learns-voucher-program-work-we-have-answers&quot;&gt;Arkansas LEARNS Act&lt;/a&gt;. For its first two years, participation was capped and restricted to specific student categories. This year, every K-12 student in Arkansas became eligible, and participation surged.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jan/01/private-school-enrollment-spikes-public-school-enrollment-tumbles-after-educational-freedom-account-program-becomes-available-to-all/&quot;&gt;state budget documents&lt;/a&gt;, roughly 28,100 students received EFA accounts for private school attendance and another 18,500 for homeschooling or microschool enrollment in 2025-26, at a projected cost of $326 million. That is a dramatic increase from the 14,297 participants in the program&apos;s second year and 5,548 in its first.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the relationship between those numbers and the enrollment loss is not straightforward. A &lt;a href=&quot;https://reason.org/commentary/fiscal-analysis-how-arkansas-education-freedom-account-program-is-impacting-taxpayers-and-students/&quot;&gt;fiscal analysis by Reason Foundation&lt;/a&gt; estimated that only 27.5% of second-year EFA participants were &quot;switchers&quot; who would have otherwise attended public school. In the first year, the rate was 34.8%. The rest were students already enrolled in private schools, homeschooled, or entering kindergarten for the first time. If the switcher rate held at roughly 25-35% for the expanded third year, that would account for somewhere between 7,000 and 16,000 actual departures from public schools, a range wide enough to explain most, all, or more than all of the 8,916-student loss.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The honest answer: nobody knows the precise switcher rate for 2025-26 yet. The data does not exist in the enrollment files.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Birth rates: the slow-motion factor&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other force at work predates the LEARNS Act by more than a decade. Arkansas births peaked in 2007 and have declined &lt;a href=&quot;https://talkbusiness.net/2019/08/data-points-the-case-of-the-missing-kindergarteners/&quot;&gt;nearly every year since&lt;/a&gt;, with roughly 4,000 fewer children born per year by 2017 compared to the peak. Those smaller cohorts have been working their way through the K-12 pipeline. By fall 2021, every grade from kindergarten through eighth consisted of students born during the declining-birth-rate era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The state will likely lose more than 15,000 students&quot; over the following five years as smaller birth cohorts replace larger graduating classes.
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://talkbusiness.net/2019/08/data-points-the-case-of-the-missing-kindergarteners/&quot;&gt;Talk Business &amp;amp; Politics, August 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That projection, made before anyone had heard of COVID-19 or Education Freedom Accounts, anticipated sustained demographic losses on roughly the scale the state is now experiencing. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/hot-springs&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Hot Springs&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Superintendent Mike Hernandez &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jan/31/data-show-enrollment-falling-in-arkansas-school/&quot;&gt;told the Democrat-Gazette&lt;/a&gt; that he attributes his district&apos;s 3.4% enrollment drop since 2023-24 to shrinking birth rates, a trend visible in districts across the state regardless of school grades.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Virtual schools grew while everything else fell&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The sector-level data offers one more clue about where students went. &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-connections-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Connections Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; grew by 1,205 students (+26.3%) and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/arkansas-virtual-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Arkansas Virtual Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; by 510 (+9.7%), bringing the combined virtual enrollment to 11,559, nearly triple its pre-COVID level of 4,071 in 2019-20. Virtual schools have grown every year since the pandemic, a pattern not reversed by the return to in-person schooling.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid-sectors.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year change by sector: traditional, virtual, and charter&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Traditional districts absorbed the full force of the decline and then some. The charter sector (brick-and-mortar charters, identified by name) was essentially flat, with losses at eStem (-340) and others roughly offset by gains at &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/exalt-academy-of-southwest-little-rock&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Exalt Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (+355) and &lt;a href=&quot;/ar/districts/graduate-arkansas-charter&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Graduate Arkansas Charter&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (+250). The virtual sector was the only one to post clear growth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether virtual enrollment growth represents families choosing a different public school model or an intermediate step before leaving public education entirely, the data cannot say.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The racial composition of the loss&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;White students accounted for 7,863 of the 8,916-student decline, or 88.2% of the total loss. Black enrollment fell by 1,593, and Hispanic enrollment fell by 1,157. Only Asian students (+327) and multiracial students (+1,449) posted gains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/ar/img/2025-12-22-ar-cliff-exceeds-covid-demographics.png&quot; alt=&quot;Enrollment change by racial group, 2025 to 2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The disproportionate white loss is consistent with both the EFA program&apos;s initial demographic profile and longer-running demographic trends. White students have declined from 69.4% of Arkansas enrollment in 2004-05 to 56.5% in 2025-26, a 12.9 percentage-point drop over two decades. Hispanic enrollment has grown from 6.0% to 15.4% over the same period, and multiracial students from near zero to 5.4%. This year&apos;s loss accelerated those trajectories but did not create them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hispanic enrollment declined for the first time in 21 years of data, after growing every single year since 2004-05. The 2025-26 drop cut across demographic lines, not just along them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;96 districts at their lowest point ever&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Among the 259 districts in the 2026 data, 96 now sit at their lowest enrollment in the full 21-year dataset, 37.1% of all districts. That figure includes small rural districts that have been declining for decades and mid-size suburban districts that were growing as recently as 2022.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The funding implications are immediate. Arkansas allocates foundation funding on a per-pupil basis, and &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jan/31/data-show-enrollment-falling-in-arkansas-school/&quot;&gt;state officials have argued&lt;/a&gt; that historic funding increases mean districts can absorb a 2.5% enrollment loss before budgets are affected. But 122 of 258 districts, nearly half, lost more than 2.5% this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The enrollment shift means already underfunded public schools face challenges that are &apos;only going to get more dire.&apos;&quot;
-- April Reisma, Arkansas Education Association president, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jan/01/private-school-enrollment-spikes-public-school-enrollment-tumbles-after-educational-freedom-account-program-becomes-available-to-all/&quot;&gt;Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, January 2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What 2026-27 might reveal&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2025-26 drop cannot be pinned on any single cause. Birth-rate-driven pipeline shrinkage was already forecast to cost Arkansas 15,000 or more students by the mid-2020s. The LEARNS Act&apos;s universal EFA expansion added a powerful pull factor in the same window. Virtual enrollment tripled over six years for reasons distinct from either.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2026-27 count will show whether this year was a one-time adjustment as pent-up demand for the EFA program was released, or the beginning of a steeper decline. If the switcher rate stabilizes and no new cohort of public school families applies for vouchers, the losses could moderate. If the program continues to grow and smaller birth cohorts continue to enter kindergarten, the state could fall below 460,000 within a year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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