Every major subgroup in Arkansas improved or held steady on graduation rates over the past nine years. Asian students gained 5.4 points. Black students gained 3.6. Economically disadvantaged students gained 3.1. Even English learners, who lost ground, started from a much higher base.

Then there is foster care.

Students in the foster care system graduated at 73.5 percent in 2018, the first year Arkansas reported the subgroup. By 2024, the rate had fallen to 67.9 percent — a decline of 5.6 percentage points while the state average climbed 2 points.

Foster care is the only subgroup in Arkansas that is unambiguously getting worse.

The Trajectory

The decline was not gradual. Foster care students dropped from 73.5 percent in 2018 to 64.4 percent in 2022 — a 9.1-point fall in four years. There was a partial recovery to 69.6 percent in 2023, then a retreat to 67.9 in 2024.

The gap between foster care students and the state average widened from about 16 points in 2018 to 21 points in 2024. While the state was narrowing gaps for nearly every other group, this one got worse.

Where Foster Care Sits Among Vulnerable Groups

Foster care students have the lowest graduation rate of any subgroup Arkansas tracks. At 67.9 percent, they sit well below students experiencing homelessness (82.9 percent), English learners (82.9 percent), and students with special needs (85.4 percent).

The comparison with students who are currently homeless is particularly striking. Both groups face housing instability and disrupted home lives. But students experiencing homelessness graduate at rates 15 points higher than those in foster care. The difference suggests something specific about the foster care system — the frequency of school changes, the gap between placements, the loss of advocacy that a parent typically provides — compounds in ways that homelessness alone does not.

The Only Subgroup That Declined

Among all subgroups with data available for comparison, foster care is the sole decliner. Native American students also showed a decline (87.2 to 81.0 percent), though their small population makes trend analysis less stable. English learners lost 2.8 points but started above 85 percent.

Foster care started lower and fell further. The combination of a low starting point and a downward trajectory means these students are increasingly isolated from the progress happening everywhere else in Arkansas education.

By the numbers: Foster care graduation rate fell from 73.5% (2018) to 67.9% (2024), a 5.6-point decline. The gap to the state average widened from 16 to 21 points.

What 68 Percent Means

A 68 percent graduation rate means roughly one in three students who enter the foster care system during high school will not receive a diploma on time. Some of those students will eventually graduate — through GED programs, alternative pathways, or extended timelines. But the four-year rate measures the system's ability to keep students on track through a standard high school career, and that ability is declining.

Arkansas has roughly 4,800 children in foster care at any given time, according to the state's Division of Children and Family Services. The number who are high school age and tracked in graduation cohorts is smaller, which makes the rate somewhat volatile year to year. But the seven-year trend is unmistakable: not a single year since 2018 has matched the starting rate.

What Would Help

The research on foster care and education outcomes points consistently to the same factors: school stability, designated educational liaisons, and credit transfer policies that prevent students from losing progress when they change placements.

Arkansas's Fostering Connections Act requires that children in state custody remain in their school of origin whenever possible, even after a placement change. But the gap between policy and practice can be wide — transportation logistics, caseworker caseloads, and the urgency of placement decisions often override educational continuity.

The fact that every other vulnerable subgroup in Arkansas is either improving or holding steady makes the foster care decline harder to explain as a systemic failure. Something specific to this population is breaking down, and the graduation data is the clearest signal.

Data source

Graduation rate data comes from the Arkansas Department of Education Data Center, covering four-year adjusted cohort graduation rates from 2018 through 2024 for the foster care subgroup.

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